Buyer Setup: Thode + Cannon

Buy Box Definition & ROI / Break-Even Analysis — Inner-Loop Houston • Prepared June 2026

Property Map

Open All 4 Properties on Google Maps

The 4 Properties

802 Anderson St
Bellaire, TX 77401 • Post Oak Court • Active
$1,499,000 Active Listing (MLS #89913345)
4 Beds
3.5 Baths
4,706 SqFt
8,750 SqFt Lot
2005 Built
Single Family

Active on HAR. Last sold 2014 at $1.2M. Tax appraised ~$1.34M.

Zillow HAR Map
HAR Trend — Bellaire
3803 Marquette St
Houston (West U), TX 77005 • Collegeview • Pending
$1,529,853 Pending — see HAR for list price
4 Beds
3 Baths
2,982 SqFt
5,000 SqFt Lot
1995 Built
2-Story

Pending on HAR. Collegeview Sec 1, Harris County. Highest $/sqft in this set ($513/sqft).

Zillow HAR Map
HAR Trend — West University Place
2219 Columbia St
Houston (Heights), TX 77008 • Houston Heights Add • Listed
$1,800,000 Active Listing
5 Beds
3.5 Baths
4,212 SqFt
~6,534 SqFt Lot
2012 Built
Single Family

Custom build. Brazilian teak floors, chef's kitchen w/ 2 dishwashers, office + loft + media room.

Zillow HAR Map
HAR Trend — Houston Heights
3805 Swarthmore St W
Houston (West U), TX 77005 • West University Place • Pending
$2,100,000 Listed (Pending)
4–5 Beds
5 Baths
4,199 SqFt
5,700 SqFt Lot
2006 Built
Single Family

Custom by Georgetown Capital. Pecan hardwoods, new generator (2026), gated driveway, dead-end street. Blocks from West U Elementary + Whole Foods.

Zillow HAR Map
HAR Trend — West University Place

Buy Box

Derived from the 4 properties above. This defines Thode + Cannon's target profile for inner-loop Houston.

Target Areas (Ranked by Preference)

Rank Area ZIP Subdivision(s) Their Preference
1 West University Place 77005 Collegeview, West University Place 2 of their 4 picks are here (strongest preference)
2 Bellaire 77401 Post Oak Court 1 of their 4 picks — prestigious inner-loop enclave
3 Houston Heights 77008 Houston Heights Addition 1 of their 4 picks — highest recent appreciation

All three are premier inner-loop Houston markets with strong school districts, walkability, and long-term demand. West U and Bellaire are independent incorporated cities within the Houston metro.

Price Band
$1,200,000 – $2,100,000
Bedrooms
4 – 5
Bathrooms
3 – 5 (minimum 3 full)
Living Area
2,980 – 4,700 SqFt
Lot Size
5,000 – 8,750 SqFt
Year Built
1995 – 2012 (quality construction)
Property Type
Single Family, 2+ Story
Style Notes
Custom/semi-custom builds, hardwood floors, high-end finishes

Market Desirability Ranking

All three target areas are among Houston's most desirable inner-loop neighborhoods:

HAR Market Truth — Real MLS (Multiple Listing Service) Data

HAR.com is the Houston MLS (Multiple Listing Service) — the authoritative source for real sale data. Click any link below to see live median prices, $/sqft, days on market, and sales history direct from the source.

West University Place (77005)

30 homes for sale • Median home values among highest in Houston • Limited supply: <1 sq mile, ~3,600 total homes

HAR blocks automated data pulls (403). Open the HAR Trend link above for live median sale price, $/sqft, DOM, and 1-year appreciation figures.

Open HAR Trend for Live Figures

Bellaire / Post Oak Court (77401)

105 homes for sale in Bellaire area • Average list price ~$974K • Avg 3,462 sqft • Post Oak Court: 2 homes for sale

HAR blocks automated data pulls (403). Open the HAR Trend links above for live median sale price, $/sqft, DOM, and appreciation.

Open HAR Trend — Bellaire Open HAR Trend — Post Oak Court

Houston Heights (77008)

Average home price ~$778K (77008) • ~$318/sqft • Properties purchased 10 years ago have nearly doubled in value • Limited land = natural scarcity

HAR blocks automated data pulls (403). Open the HAR Trend link above for live median sale price, $/sqft, DOM, and appreciation.

Open HAR Trend for Live Figures

HAR.com (Houston Association of Realtors) is the Houston MLS — the definitive source for real transaction data. Appreciation rates and price data in the ROI section below are sourced from NeighborhoodScout and BestPlaces. For ground-truth numbers, always reference HAR via the links above.

ROI & Break-Even Analysis

Can Thode + Cannon break even on resale in 5–7 years? Here's the data.

Historical Appreciation Rates by Area

Area 10-Year Annualized 1-Year (Latest) Latest Quarter (Annualized) Source
Bellaire 77401 3.50% 4.78% 8.91% NeighborhoodScout
West U 77005 2.75% 2.97% -4.19% * NeighborhoodScout
Heights 77008 ~5.4% (Houston avg) 11.28% N/A BestPlaces / NeighborhoodScout

* West U's negative latest quarter is a short-term fluctuation in a limited-supply luxury market. Long-term trajectory remains positive. Heights shows the strongest recent momentum.

Transaction Cost Assumptions

Cost Percentage Notes
Buyer Closing Costs (purchase) ~2.5% Title, escrow, lender fees, insurance, survey
Seller Commission (resale) 6% – 8% Listing agent + buyer agent — the largest single cost at resale
Seller Closing / Title Costs (resale) ~1% – 2% Title policy, escrow, prorations, transfer fees
Total Round-Trip Cost ~9.5% – 12.5% Buy-side 2.5% + sell-side 7%–10% (commission 6–8% + closing 1–2%)

Texas has no state income tax. Property taxes in these areas average 2.0-2.3% annually (factored into ownership cost, not into break-even on equity).

Break-Even & ROI Projections

Representative purchase price: $1,500,000 (midpoint of the buy box). Break-even = the year total appreciation exceeds the round-trip transaction cost (~9.5%–12.5%, driven primarily by the 6–8% seller commission). Projections below use a midpoint of ~11% total round-trip cost (7% seller commission + 1.5% seller closing + 2.5% buyer closing).

Scenario Annual Apprec. Break-Even Year Equity at 5 Yrs Equity at 7 Yrs ROI at 7 Yrs
Conservative
West U long-term
2.75% ~4.0 years $+32K
($1.71M → net $1.53M)
$+119K
($1.81M → net $1.62M)
+7.9%
Moderate
Bellaire 10yr avg
3.50% ~3.1 years $+93K
($1.78M → net $1.59M)
$+209K
($1.91M → net $1.71M)
+13.9%
Optimistic
Heights recent / Bellaire recent
5.00% ~2.3 years $+214K
($1.91M → net $1.71M)
$+393K
($2.11M → net $1.89M)
+26.2%

Equity figures are NET of ~11% round-trip transaction cost (midpoint). Calculations: Future Value = $1.5M × (1 + rate)^years. Net at sale = FV − (FV × 8.5% seller costs [7% commission + 1.5% closing]) − ($1.5M × 2.5% buyer costs paid at purchase). ROI = net gain / $1.5M purchase price. Seller commission assumed at 7% midpoint of the 6–8% range.

Detailed Math: $1.5M Purchase at 3.5% Annual Appreciation

Year Home Value Cumulative Gain Net After Sell Costs (8.5%) Net Gain (minus $37.5K buy costs)
1$1,552,500$52,500$1,420,538-$116,963
2$1,606,838$106,838$1,470,256-$67,244
3$1,663,077$163,077$1,521,715-$15,785
4$1,721,284$221,284$1,574,975+$37,475
5$1,781,529$281,529$1,630,099+$92,599
6$1,843,882$343,882$1,687,152+$149,652
7$1,908,418$408,418$1,746,202+$208,702

Break-even occurs between year 3 and 4 (~month 38). By year 5, net profit is ~$93K. By year 7, ~$209K. Buy costs = $37,500 (2.5% of $1.5M at purchase). Sell costs = 8.5% of sale price at exit (7% seller commission + 1.5% closing/title).

Bottom Line: Yes — These Areas Support 5–7 Year ROI

Data Sources & Confidence

Property Price Source Details Source Confidence
802 Anderson (Bellaire) Listed $1,499,000 HAR MLS #89913345 Confirmed Active listing on HAR
3803 Marquette (West U) Tax Appraisal $1,529,853 — see HAR for list price HAR MLS (Pending) Pending Under contract; list price on HAR
2219 Columbia (Heights) Listed $1,800,000 HAR MLS, agent sites Confirmed Active listing
3805 Swarthmore (West U) Listed $2,100,000 (Pending) HAR MLS #10098612, Redfin, Trulia Confirmed Pending / under contract

All four properties confirmed on HAR (Houston MLS). 802 Anderson is actively listed; 3803 Marquette and 3805 Swarthmore are pending/under contract; 2219 Columbia is actively listed. Appreciation data from NeighborhoodScout and BestPlaces. Transaction cost assumptions based on standard Texas closing practices with 6–8% seller commission.

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