Estate & Distressed Property Analysis

Framework for pricing non-market-ready properties (estate, divorce, distressed). Establishes repair costs that justify discounted listing price. Part 1: Distressed Property Pricing.

Process Flow

1. CMA / Comps
2. Walkthrough
3. Condition Grade
4. Remodel Estimate
5. Price by Buyer Type

Decision: Two Paths

Path A: Make ReadyPath B: Subtract + Incentive
Invest in repairs → sell at full market valueSubtract repair costs from average → discount for investor/flipper

Remodel Estimate Tiers

Reference: 2,000 sqft / 4BR / 2.5BA / 1 HVAC. Scale proportionally for smaller/larger units. 2024 costs.

LevelScopeLowHighAverage
CosmeticFlooring, fixtures, painting$8,245$22,995$15,620
SmallCosmetic + kitchen and/or bath$28,794$87,420$58,107
MediumSmall + roof$34,395$99,149$66,772
LargeMedium + HVAC$43,096$118,028$80,562
UltraAll systems$55,225$150,395$102,810

Cosmetic Breakdown (Phase 1: The 3 Fs)

ItemDetailsLowHighAverage
Flooring~500 sqft coverage$1,000$10,000$5,500
Fixtures20 knobs, 2 chandeliers, 5 fans$3,495$5,495$4,495
Finishes/PaintingInterior with trim$3,750$7,500$5,625
Cosmetic Total$8,245$22,995$15,620

Individual Project & System Costs

CategoryItemLowHighAverageNotes
ProjectKitchen$14,549$40,425$27,487
ProjectBathroom$6,000$24,000$15,000
SystemRoof$5,601$11,729$8,665
SystemHVAC$3,100$7,150$5,125No ductwork
SystemFoundation$3,000$7,000$5,000
SystemElectrical (200A)$1,700$3,200$2,450
SystemPlumbing (PEX)$4,000$15,000$9,500
SystemHot Water Heater$800$2,000$1,400
SystemSprinkler$2,400$4,200$3,300
SystemTermite$229$967$598Per linear foot

Pricing by Buyer Type

5a. Owner-Occupant

Buyer lives in the property. Least likely for distressed/as-is (financing challenges).

Offer = Average Market Value − Remodel Estimate
Remodel LevelRemodel CostOffer PriceCash to Close (3.5% FHA)Cash to Close (10%)Cash to Close (20%)
Cosmetic Low$8,245$190,505$21,088$33,521$52,611
Cosmetic Avg$15,620$183,130$24,009$36,543$56,246
Cosmetic High$22,995$175,755$29,149$40,571$58,146
Small Avg$58,107$140,643$66,630$72,171$89,636
Medium Avg$66,772$131,978$71,891$79,970$93,168

Cash to Close = Down Payment + Buyer CC (2.5%) + Remodel Cost

5b. Investor-Hold (Buy, Repair, Rent)

Investor buys, repairs, then holds as rental. No flip profit deducted.

Offer = (Average − Remodel) ÷ (1 + Buyer CC%)
Remodel LevelRemodelOffer (2% CC)Offer (3% CC)Cash to Close (20% DP)Cash to Close (Cash)
Cosmetic Low$8,245$186,770$184,956$50,814$199,445
Cosmetic Avg$15,620$179,539$177,796$51,459$197,659
Cosmetic High$22,995$172,309$170,636$53,853$198,926
Small Avg$58,107$137,885$136,547$89,684$199,342

5c. Investor-Flip (Buy, Repair, Sell for Profit)

Most likely buyer for distressed. Buys below market, repairs, sells at ARV.

Offer = ARV − Remodel − Buyer CC (2.5%) − Seller CC (7% of ARV) − Holding (1%/mo) − Profit (5-10%)

Cosmetic Remodel Scenarios

ScenarioRemodelHoldingProfitOffer% of ARVCash to Close
3 mo / 5% profit (Low)$8,245$5,963$9,938$163,74682.4%$177,884
3 mo / 5% profit (Avg)$15,620$5,963$9,938$156,54778.8%$176,081
3 mo / 10% profit (Avg)$15,620$5,963$19,875$146,85673.9%$166,147
6 mo / 5% profit (Avg)$15,620$11,925$9,938$150,73075.8%$170,098
6 mo / 10% profit (Avg)$15,620$11,925$19,875$141,04071.0%$160,165
6 mo / 10% profit (High)$22,995$11,925$19,875$133,84967.3%$160,190

Cash to Close = Offer + Buyer CC (2.5%) + Remodel. Investors typically pay all-cash (no financing).

The 60% Rule

Investor-grade distressed properties target ~60% of ARV. This is the floor — accounts for maximum risk, maximum repair, maximum profit margin.

Three Buyer Types (Likelihood)

Buyer TypeLikelihoodWhyKey Factor
Investor-FlipMost LikelyBuys below market, repairs, sells for profitNeeds 5-10% profit margin
Investor-HoldLess LikelyBuys, repairs, rents long-termNo flip profit, but needs cash flow
Owner-OccupantRareNeeds financing (lenders can't underwrite as-is)Highest offer but hardest to close

Renovation Phase Map

PhaseScopeMaps To
Phase 1: 3 FsFlooring, Fixtures, FinishesCosmetic
Phase 2: K+BKitchen and/or BathroomsSmall
Phase 3: SystemsRoof, HVAC, Foundation, Plumbing, ElectricalMedium Large Ultra

Key Formulas Reference

Owner-Occupant: Offer = AVG − Remodel
Investor-Hold: Offer = (AVG − Remodel) ÷ (1 + BuyerCC%)
Investor-Flip: Offer = (ARV − Remodel − SellerCC − Holding − Profit) ÷ (1 + BuyerCC%)
Cash to Close: = Down Payment + BuyerCC + Remodel

BuyerCC = 2-3% of offer | SellerCC = 7% of ARV (agents + title) | Holding = 1%/mo of ARV (1-6 months) | Profit = 5-10% of ARV